led to disappointing market expectationson December 24th, 2011 at 1:53 AM
Recently, the reporter went to Foshan Nanhai Industrial Park, East Village, West Union, with passers-by guide to find handsome bright metal products factory, but the factory door is locked, the original ‘handsome light Foshan Hardware Product Factory’ brand has disappeared. You can get a glimpse through the windows of empty factories, paper and cardboard boxes scattered on the ground. Scattered on the ground and only two or three window LED downlight mold, it seems that there was an LED lamp production plant.
‘I heard LED lamp orders were canceled. Factory owners did not expect so soon ran way, and had to be removed arrears plant equipment suppliers, to reduce losses. “One employee said.
High expectations, and ultimately make the domestic LED gradually bubble burst in the second half of 2011. ‘LED backlight and LED lighting market is the two LED investment boom emerged as the major incentive. ‘Ruifeng power Gong Weibin, chairman, said the industry had expected to be, LED TV, the explosive growth in the LED market will increase five times. The fact is, despite this year’s LED TV penetration rate has exceeded 40%, but as the technology matures and changes, so that the absolute number of chip LED backlight is not doubled.
Reporters learned from a number of LED companies, originally expected this year, the domestic LED lighting market penetration will rise to 6%, but the fact that less than 1%. LED end application market reality, and before the madness of the LED input into irreconcilable contradictions.
September, has announced $ 2.5 billion, purchasing 500 sets of MOCVD equipment (LED wafer production equipment) Optical sudden cessation of GCL LED epitaxial silicon project in Zhangjiagang, opened the LED market overcapacity prelude to the playoffs.
‘Conservative estimate, the number of LED business failures this year has more than one percent. Among them, the packaging of more than 100 enterprises, 300 enterprises lamps, most small businesses. ‘Said senior engineer Zhang Xiaofei Industrial Research Institute, according to the beginning of the domestic LED MOCVD number doing business planning capacity, market demand is now about 10 times, and now the country has the capacity MOCVD production is probably also the current market four times demand, excess capacity will naturally lead the industry reshuffle.
Wuhu, Yangzhou and other governments have introduced LED development incentives, particularly high MOCVD equipment subsidies, so that capital inflows and the expansion of LED companies are full of color blindness and opportunism. Twenty-three quarter of this year with the release of MOCVD capacity is concentrated, on the contrary, downstream shipping poor, naturally led to a huge inventory LED business.
In mid-November, the domestic LED leading enterprises three optical (600703.SH) suddenly announced high-level shake-up, one of the reasons is a serious inventory accumulation. An optical three quarterly data published this year, to the third quarter, three optical inventory of 310 million yuan from the beginning, quickly soared to 933 million yuan.
‘Published by the beginning of LED upstream investment plans, LED upstream capacity may advance more than three years ahead of market growth in demand. ‘Jiangxi Jing Wang, chairman and lighting revealed that most of the upstream LED manufacturers discontinued at least 1 / 3 of capacity, and even some cut-off 50%; and LED packaging and application of downstream enterprises generally underemployed.
However, the excess is not only reflected in the upstream LED production capacity, as well as the downstream LED application market.
A number of LED lighting business in the early or mid-year when they said that as the rare earth phosphors prices soaring and led directly to price energy-saving lamps, energy-saving lamps to replace the LED lighting as possible, both overseas and domestic markets may be explosive growth .
In fact, due to the economic downturn in Europe and America, most of the Canton Fair in October this year, LED lighting companies do not achieve the expected order. Domestic LED lighting market is mainly concentrated in government procurement, part of the luxury hotels, office buildings and so on. ‘LED lighting in the domestic market penetration of less than 1% of the people did not really enter the home. ‘Ji Huaguang electric operations manager Yajun said. Gong Weibin pointed out, 8 per energy-saving lamps to replace incandescent spent 2 yuan more than 10 years time, to make $ 50 $ 2 LED lamp to replace incandescent only a dream, consumers will wait for further price decline.
LED display manufacturers, general manager of Dongguan Shuo Wang Kun said Narcissus, many LED applications are business expansion strategy to the overall project investment of 10% to 30% of the production LED projects, money to local governments to land, and its Most orders comes from government projects.
Waiting for tomorrow
Enveloped in the domestic LED industry bubble burst in the crisis, and incandescent figure out early next year may be issued 8 billion yuan subsidies LED lighting, letting the LED industry is expected to generate new markets, three safety optoelectronics, Ruifeng power, the country Star power and other LED stock prices of listed companies are in the November 4 limit.
However, according to Figure out incandescent plan from now to 2012 for the transition period to October 2012 and the first 100-watt incandescent lamp into the phase-out period of more than two years after the elimination of more than 60 watts and incandescent. A high-level LED lighting that now the family is basically using fluorescent, little more than a 60 watt incandescent, so figure out incandescent lighting to promote the development of LED, the LED is a false market expectations.
But for the capital was about LED upstream enterprise, there is no better than market expectations. The reason is the loss of MOCVD equipment downtime are great. Lianghai vice president shares the same side that if one day out of two MOCVD furnace, one day cost is $ 10,000 a month is $ 300,000, but can not be easily shut down.
Currently, the domestic manufacturers of MOCVD equipment already in operation, nearly 20, including three optical, optoelectronic Di source, dry according to optical, Hua Chan, Shandong wave, Silan and so on. Only lead to production of MOCVD equipment is another evil, drive upstream sapphire substrates irrational expansion. 2 in. sapphire substrate from the beginning of the price $ 35 / piece, down to the current $ 10 / piece or so.